About this project

Why this exists

This site presents a structural proposal for reforming the NBA's draft incentives. The goal is not to assign blame—teams that tank are behaving rationally within a broken system—but to redesign the system so that rational behavior aligns with competitive basketball.

The ideas here were developed through extensive analysis of NBA team valuation, player projection modeling, and incentive design. They are offered freely for discussion, criticism, and improvement by anyone in the basketball community.

Philosophy

Three principles guide this proposal:

• Sever the link between losing and draft position. As long as on-court losses improve draft odds, rational front offices will find ways to lose. No amount of lottery reform changes this. The incentive must be removed at the root.
• Make every win matter. A system that only punishes losing is incomplete. Teams should have a tangible, compounding reason to win every game—not just for playoff seeding, but for postseason advantage.
• Transparency over authority. Valuation models should be open-source, backtested, and subject to public scrutiny. No committee should have unchecked power over draft positioning.

Contributing

This is a living document. If you see a flaw in the logic, a better calibration for the point deficit, or a gaming vector we haven't considered, the conversation is open. These ideas are stronger when challenged.

Contact

For questions, feedback, or collaboration, contact Gregg Donovan at nba@greggdonovan.com.